VIX Index Indicator (Fear Index)

VIX Index is one of the popular index that measure the global stock market's expectation of volatility implied by the S&P 500 and it is also known as "Fear Index". Investors should constantly check the VIX Index as it shows the fear of public investors on the global stock markets.

So, How do we know whether the public investors are panic and fear on the global stock markets? Let's backtesting the past few economic crisis results,

In 2008 (The worst economic disaster since Great Depression of 1929)

VIX Index in 2008

The economical crisis was started around the end of 2007 till 2009. The VIX index above showed how panic the public investors are and compared it with the stock market in 2008. The VIX index has almost reached 100% in such a short period.

S&P 500 in 2008

Usually, when the S&P 500 has fall below the important support lines then we would see a high pitch of VIX index. In other words, global investors are selling off their stocks and start to fear about the future. Or else, the movement of VIX index would be at around 20%.

In 2015 (Latest correction of global stock market)

As we mentioned earlier, if the stock markets went too high without any correction then be prepared for it as it will eventually comes. Please do not mistaken the difference between technical correction and economic crisis.

S&P 500 in 2015

Since after the economic crisis in 2008, the S&P 500 went uptrend for around 220% without any proper deep correction. In August of 2015, the S&P 500 index has finally make a correction for more than 15% in just a period of 6 months.

VIX Index in 2015

Before the stock market collapse, VIX index will always went higher than before because of majority of the investors are fear and uncomfortable with the current markets price. Basically, VIX index (Fear Index) will always be unstable when most of the investors are greed and the global stock index price went up until uncontrollable.

To be advised:
1) Always check the VIX index to see how fear is the global investors at this current stock markets.
2) VIX went higher than normal means that the stock markets are going to have a correction or collapse.

Hope everyone could understand the VIX index. Please drop any comments. Thanks.

Global Stock Market is Falling or Correction?

These days everyone is concerned about the future movement of the Global Stock Market. Recently, the global markets were influenced by the US NASX and S&P 500 markets. Many people were arguing whether is it a new crash (after 10 years) or just a correction.

To be honest, all fundamental analysis are pointless at this current global markets condition, investors should focus more on the technical analysis to determine where to take profit or stop loss. The Index PE ratio has actually dropped back to last year level. However, we believe that it is only a technical correction as the S&P 500 were on the uptrend without any correction since early of 2016 for around 60%.

Around 60% uptrends since early of 2016 

Investors should focus more on the US Stock Market (S&P 500) as the global market falling due to them. Most importantly, this is not yet a global economic crisis because there are no economic crashes at this moment (Unsimilar to the past few global crisis). All the annual company financial reports released lately reflects that the economic are still strong and solid.

However, we would still need to prepare for any possibilities. According to the technically analysis, there are a few supports that need to be considered. If the US index fall below the support, we will have to start preparing for the second stock portfolio adjustment.

S&P 500 First Support @ 2540.00

The first support would be at 2540.00 and the second is at around 2467.73. If it is really fall below the second support, we believed that the bear market might just gonna start. Hence, from now onwards, the global stock markets are getting more harder to invest for normal investors.

To be advised,
1) Please sell off without hesitate for those short term stocks that did not perform too well.
2) For medium or long term investors should wait for a better signal.
3) US government still planning to increase the interest rate on the upcoming FOMC meeting. hence, the global stock markets have not really come to the end yet.
4) If it is just a correction of the global stock market, we should start looking for any undervalued stocks to increase your stock management portfolio.

Please feel free to drop any comments. Thanks.

The Coming Bear Market?

Recently, the performance of the stock market does not perform well. Does it means that the Bull Market is coming to the end? Bear Market is coming soon? The candlestick pattern indicator is showing a weird signals. Based on the backtesting results,

HSI: Market (2007)

A breakout signal on 29 Oct 2007 with four candlesticks and then a gap drop signal to begin with the bear market. In fact, it was the beginning of a Bear Market,

If compared back to the recent HSI (2017),

Exactly the same candlesticks signals have appeared again. A breakout signal then four candlesticks and a gap drop signal with a similar Volume of transactions.

KLSE (2017)

For Malaysia Bursa, the stock market started to perform poor in June onwards. Recently, there were also a continuously 8 days of dropping in the stock market. In addition, the recent highest point in Sep was even lower than before in June, in which the market proved that the economy might be collapsing. The most critical point is 1753, better hope that the stock won't drop below that level. If not, 1727 (-3.34%) will be the next resistance line.

According to these recent performance, it is quite dangerous. However, nobody will exactly know or inform everyone that the Bear Market has arrived (not until you have almost reach to the bottom). Personally, I think everyone should re-examine your portfolio and try to get rid of useless or underperformance stocks as the market does not really look so healthy.

Technical Analysis - The wave analysis showed that this is the final wave of the Bull Market (5th wave) before the bear market has come. For those safety investors or low risk investors, short term stocks should not be considered as the current market is quite difficult to play.

Be Prepared For The Bear Market to arrive! Have you think of any strategies to prepare for the coming bear market?

Important rules for Investment

It is always important to remember certain important rules for all investors before trading in stock market,

1) Do not invest with borrow money. 

People always hope that the price will go even higher at the current price. So, they choose to borrow money to increase their stock portfolio.  This is not highly recommended, what if the stock price drop? No one can guarantee what will happen tomorrow, even on the market.

2) Diversify the portfolio

Everyone should diversify their stocks. Do not only 'ALL IN' in one single particular stock as the risk is way too high. Over diversify also quite difficult as too many stocks to monitor. Hence, please only select those stocks that you have done your detailed research on it.

3) Cut loss 

This is the most important rule, everyone should set a "Cut Loss" price for every stock. Many people loss a lot of money due to they do not perform a cut loss system. I will explain further on cut loss in the next blog as it involved Technical Analysis.

4) Invest as early as possible

Everyone learn from mistakes. By investing early, you could understand more about stocks and you might achieve the best returns after many years of investment. Always remember, stock investment is not a Rich Man's Game, anyone could be the stakeholders and gain profits throughout the years by dividends.

5) Avoid poor earning companies

Never invest into a company that have been losing money for the past few years. Normally, i will not invest in those companies that have negative earning (Not even a single year for the past 10 years).

6) Fundamental research

If you purchase stocks without a proper research, you are actually gambling money and you may lose money too. Hence, it is important to make sure that your selective stocks are not overpriced or no growing company. Fundamental research include PE, ROE, EPS, etc. I would be explaining it in details in the later part of the blog.

7) Do not over trading 

When a person over trading on the stock market, they will lose their conscious. They will slowly becoming a gambler and slowly they will lose track on their originally planned strategies. A good investor will only invest in a good fundamental stock and hold it for many years. For instance, the way that Warren Buffet invested in Coca-Cola.

Besides, I came across that Barclay Wall Street has set 10 Power Commandments rules for their employees, which it is quite interesting as it teaches people to respect their job as well as themselves while doing working in a investment banking.

Invest smart and don't lose money on the stock market.

Upcoming Malaysia Market Trend

Alibaba's (Jack Ma) is planning to invest a huge amount of money into Malaysia as everyone knows. Which means that Malaysia technology stocks would be taking a huge advantages as he would either acquired or work together with the local technology company in order to build up his e-commerce market.

As this so called "Investment" by Jack Ma has not been confirmed between the government and him. But some of the stocks have already overrated on the news and his visits to Malaysia. For instance, XINHWA, 5267 and GHLSYS, 0021.

XINHWA, 5267. Recently, they have build up an ecommerce website (e5buy.com) which have actually attracted china investors.

When the news released, the stocks shoot up straight. 

GHLSYS, 0021. They have already signed an agreement with Alibaba on Alipay in Malaysia. Which means, the future of this stock could be highly considered.

A high volume and a gap after the news released

 For TA, we could consider looking at the support line. Once it hit the support line without further dropping, we could target the price to about 1.78.

According to Public bank research, there are also 7 more technology companies that we all should be aware. For instance, (PUC, 0007), (MTOUCHE, 0092), (KGROUP, 0036), (XOX, 0165), (NETX, 0020), (M3TECH, 0017) and (MNC, 0103). Besides, other than Technology stocks, CIMB and Maybank have also signed an agreement with Alibaba on the Alipay mobile wallet. In which, it may lead to another higher breakout.

Investment Tips: Always remember to set a Stop-loss for every investment.

Support And Resistance in Stock Market!! So Easy!!

When it comes to stock investment, there are many different books with different perspectives in the world. Most people doesn't really care and only know "Buy Low and Sell High". Who doesn't know? But in fact, how should we achieve it?

I have been studying about stock investment all around the world by many different authors (Obviously, i am still reading now) and i am going to give you all a simple Tips which i have concluded in most books.

Instead of "Buy Low and Sell High", we should "Buy Support and Sell Resistance". The most easiest way to trade in the stock market is to always find the Support of each stock as well as the resistance. However, we need to first identify the trend.

1) What is Support?  It is a level on the chart where buying interest is stronger than selling pressure.

2) What is Resistance? It is a level where selling pressure overcome the buying interest in the market.

KLCI Trend by Trading View

The Red Color line is the Support whereas the Green Color Line is the Resistance. The support line will be formed when the stock movement together with volume could not break through. Then a BUY signal appear. In the same, when the stock movement and volume cannot break through the Resistance Line, SELL signal appear.

For some investors, they will try to put a Buy signal on 28/12/2016 at 1630.3 (Support) and Sell Signal on 20/02/2017 at 1712.58 (Resistance). A beautiful profit could be make within 3 months.

In conclusion, earning in the stock market is not gambling. We should put more effort on doing some Technical Analysis or research, that's how we use money to earn money. Please remember, must always need to find the support and resistance together with a very high volume in order to gain the profit.